Air Cargo Squeezed by Early Peak Season

Peak season has arrived early in 2026, and it's testing both ocean and air freight. With ocean capacity stretched and rates climbing, some shippers are eyeing air as an alternative. The trouble is, air space is tight too.

Why the peak came early

The US National Retail Federation reports that the retail import peak has landed ahead of schedule. June box imports are forecast at 2.25m teu, up 14.3% on June 2025. The main driver is front-loading, with retailers shipping early to beat expected tariff and fuel cost increases.

A few signs of the squeeze:

• The Port of Los Angeles saw a 17% jump in May and expects to top 900,000 teu in June.

• Demand across Asia Pacific is up around 4% so far this year.

• The peak looks compressed, with customers booking earlier and buffering capacity, creating short bursts of tightness rather than a steady climb.

  
  

Ocean capacity is also structurally tight. Carriers are blanking sailings, and vessels are spending longer in transit due to re-routing, congestion and slower steaming, so effective capacity stays limited even as fleets grow.

Air isn't an easy fix

Shifting to air sounds logical, but capacity constraints are limiting how far shippers can go. The move is mostly selective and tactical, used for high-value or time-sensitive goods like semiconductors, electronics and spare parts rather than a wholesale switch.

Air freight is already absorbing huge demand from the semiconductor, AI server and data centre sectors:

• Taiwan recorded 276% year-on-year air cargo growth in the first four months of 2026.

• Thailand's AI-related exports rose 223% and Vietnam's volumes grew 110%.

• Sudden flight cancellations, often linked to fuel shortages, are causing backlogs and pushing rates up almost overnight.

  
  

With both modes under pressure, planning ahead and securing space early will be key through the summer.